In an increasingly connected and dynamic global business landscape, unpredictability has become the new norm. Businesses are grappling with many uncertainties, from fluctuating market trends to unforeseen supply chain disruptions. This turbulence sends ripples through their sales and operations planning (S&OP) process, adding complex layers and challenging the essence of effective decision-making. 
在日益互联和动态的全球商业环境中，不可预测性已成为新常态。企业正在努力应对许多不确定性，从波动的市场趋势到不可预见的供应链中断。这种动荡在他们的销售和运营计划（S&OP）流程中引发了涟漪，增加了复杂的层次，并挑战了有效决策的本质。

As these factors become increasingly prevalent, S&OP — the vital nerve center of an organization’s supply chain strategy — is being stretched thin. Companies find their tried-and-true forecasting methods falling short in navigating the stormy seas of demand volatility and supply chain risk. This is causing a seismic shift in the approach needed to ensure a resilient, agile, and effective S&OP process. 
随着这些因素变得越来越普遍，S&OP——组织供应链战略的重要神经中枢——正在捉襟见肘。公司发现他们久经考验的预测方法在需求波动和供应链风险的波涛汹涌方面存在不足。这导致确保弹性、敏捷和有效的 S&OP 流程所需的方法发生了翻天覆地的变化。

Despite 95% of supply chains needing to react quickly to change, only 7% can execute decisions instantly. This delay between planning and action hinders efficiency, leading to predictions of a fivefold increase in real-time decision execution adoption by 2028. 
尽管 95% 的供应链需要对变化做出快速反应，但只有 7% 的供应链能够立即执行决策。规划和行动之间的这种延迟阻碍了效率，导致预测到2028年实时决策执行的采用率将增加五倍。

Enter the power of asking “what if.” By exploring “what if” scenarios, companies can proactively simulate and plan for different possibilities, turning unpredictability from a daunting challenge into a strategic advantage. This approach fuels decision-making with data, empowers businesses to pivot quickly, and fosters resilience in the face of uncertainty. It’s time to embrace the question “what if” in your S&OP process, and here’s how. 
输入询问“如果”的力量。通过探索“假设”场景，公司可以主动模拟和规划不同的可能性，将不可预测性从艰巨的挑战转变为战略优势。这种方法利用数据推动决策，使企业能够快速调整，并在面对不确定性时培养弹性。是时候在你的S&OP过程中接受“如果”这个问题了，这就是方法。

The “What If” in Sales and Operations Planning
销售和运营规划中的“假设”

“What if” scenario analysis represents a forward-thinking approach in sales and operations planning that allows businesses to anticipate possible future situations and develop response strategies accordingly. This method involves generating and examining scenarios based on altering key variables, like demand changes, supply disruptions, market shifts, and policy adjustments. 
“假设”情景分析代表了销售和运营规划中的前瞻性方法，使企业能够预测未来可能的情况并相应地制定响应策略。这种方法涉及根据改变关键变量（如需求变化、供应中断、市场变化和政策调整）生成和检查情景。

Central to “what if” scenario planning are the questions that can truly stretch the boundaries of the existing S&OP strategy. For example: 
“假设”情景规划的核心是能够真正扩展现有S&OP战略边界的问题。例如：

• What if a key supplier fails to deliver on time? 
  如果关键供应商未能按时交货怎么办？

• What if there’s an unexpected surge in demand for a specific product? 
  如果对特定产品的需求意外激增怎么办？

• What if a new competitor enters the market? 
  如果新的竞争对手进入市场怎么办？

• What if there’s a sudden change in government regulations affecting the supply chain? 
  如果政府法规突然发生变化，影响供应链怎么办？

By answering these questions, businesses can design a range of potential actions and responses, fortifying their business against future uncertainties in the supply chain planning and demand planning process. When properly executed, the integration of “what if” scenarios into S&OP brings a wealth of benefits, including: 
通过回答这些问题，企业可以设计一系列潜在的行动和响应，加强其业务，以应对供应链规划和需求规划过程中的未来不确定性。如果执行得当，将“假设”场景集成到S&OP中会带来很多好处，包括：

Improved Forecast Accuracy 
提高预测准确性

“What if” scenario planning improves forecast accuracy by considering multiple possible outcomes rather than relying on a single, linear projection. It allows you to test various assumptions and see their potential impact on your sales and operations, enabling you to make more accurate predictions in your demand forecast. 
“假设”情景规划通过考虑多个可能的结果而不是依赖于单个线性投影来提高预测准确性。它允许您测试各种假设并查看它们对您的销售和运营的潜在影响，使您能够在需求预测中做出更准确的预测。

Better Risk Mitigation 更好的风险缓解 

Understanding different scenarios enables you to foresee potential risks and bottlenecks in your supply chain and inventory plan. By planning for these possibilities, you can proactively mitigate these risks before they become disruptive issues. 
了解不同的情况使您能够预见供应链和库存计划中的潜在风险和瓶颈。通过规划这些可能性，您可以在这些风险成为破坏性问题之前主动降低它们。

Improved Strategic Decision-Making 
改进战略决策

The insights derived from “what if” scenario planning provide valuable data for strategic decision-making. By simulating different scenarios, you can explore various strategic options and choose the one that aligns best with your business objectives and S&OP plan. 
从“假设”情景规划中获得的见解为战略决策提供了有价值的数据。通过模拟不同的场景，您可以探索各种战略选项，并选择最适合您的业务目标和 S&OP 计划的选项。

Reduced Lead Times  缩短交货时间

Scenario planning can also help identify ways to optimize processes and reduce lead times. By understanding how changes in various factors can impact your operations, you can develop strategies to streamline your supply chain management processes and improve efficiency. 
情景规划还可以帮助确定优化流程和缩短交货时间的方法。通过了解各种因素的变化如何影响您的运营，您可以制定策略来简化供应链管理流程并提高效率。

Higher Profitability  更高的盈利能力

Informed decision-making, better risk management, and improved efficiency are positive results of “what if” scenario planning that also boost your bottom line. By turning uncertainties into opportunities, you can enhance your company’s profitability. 
明智的决策、更好的风险管理和更高的效率是“假设”情景规划的积极结果，也可以提高您的底线。通过将不确定性转化为机遇，您可以提高公司的盈利能力。

Improved Inventory Management 
改进库存管理

Scenario planning can provide insights into potential changes in demand, helping you better manage your inventory. This reduces the risk of stockouts or overstocks, ensuring you maintain an optimal inventory level. 
情景规划可以深入了解需求的潜在变化，帮助您更好地管理库存。这降低了缺货或积压的风险，确保您保持最佳库存水平。

Challenges of Incorporating “What If” Without the Right Tools 
在没有正确工具的情况下整合“假设”的挑战

While the concept of “what if” scenario planning is undeniably powerful, implementing it manually or using outdated tools presents many challenges. 
虽然“假设”情景规划的概念无疑是强大的，但手动实施或使用过时的工具会带来许多挑战。

Let’s start with the ubiquitous tool in sales and operations planning — Excel. While Excel may be great for simple calculations and data analysis, it quickly reaches its limitations when used for complex “what if” scenario planning. The data inaccuracies inherent in manual data entry, the lack of real-time data integration, and the inability to scale effectively can severely compromise the benefits of scenario planning. 
让我们从销售和运营规划中无处不在的工具 — Excel 开始。虽然 Excel 可能非常适合简单的计算和数据分析，但在用于复杂的“假设”场景规划时，它很快就会达到其局限性。手动数据输入固有的数据不准确性、缺乏实时数据集成以及无法有效扩展可能会严重损害方案规划的优势。

Consider the sheer amount of data you need to analyze to simulate different scenarios for your operations planning process. This includes historical sales data, inventory levels, production capacity, market trends, and more. Manually collecting, cleansing, and analyzing this data can be extremely time-consuming, error-prone, and inefficient. 
考虑需要分析的大量数据，以模拟运营规划流程的不同方案。这包括历史销售数据、库存水平、生产能力、市场趋势等。手动收集、清理和分析这些数据可能非常耗时、容易出错且效率低下。

Additionally, Excel simply lacks the computational power to analyze multiple scenarios simultaneously and in real time. This limitation makes it difficult to respond quickly to business environment changes, undermining the agility that “what if” scenario planning promises. 
此外，Excel 根本缺乏同时实时分析多个方案的计算能力。这种限制使得难以快速响应业务环境变化，从而破坏了“假设”情景规划所承诺的敏捷性。

Limited scalability is another significant challenge. As your business grows, your S&OP process becomes more complex, with more variables, data, and scenarios to consider. An Excel-based approach will struggle to keep up with this increased complexity, limiting your ability to make strategic decisions effectively. 
有限的可扩展性是另一个重大挑战。随着业务的增长，您的 S&OP 流程变得更加复杂，需要考虑更多的变量、数据和场景。基于 Excel 的方法将难以跟上这种增加的复杂性，从而限制您有效做出战略决策的能力。

Even beyond Excel, many older S&OP software systems lack the advanced capabilities to harness the power of “what if” scenario planning. They may not offer real-time data integration, advanced analytics, or seamless collaboration features. Without these, you’re missing out on the full potential of scenario planning, and consequently, your sales and operations planning process may fail to drive optimal results. 
即使在Excel之外，许多较旧的S&OP软件系统也缺乏利用“假设”场景规划功能的高级功能。它们可能无法提供实时数据集成、高级分析或无缝协作功能。没有这些，您将错过情景规划的全部潜力，因此，您的销售和运营规划流程可能无法推动最佳结果。

Overcoming these challenges requires a shift in mindset, moving away from manual processes and outdated tools, and embracing advanced, dedicated S&OP software. With the right tool, you can fully harness the power of “what if” scenario planning, optimizing your S&OP process to navigate the ever-evolving business landscape.  
克服这些挑战需要转变思维方式，摆脱手动流程和过时的工具，并采用先进的专用S&OP软件。使用正确的工具，您可以充分利用“假设”情景规划的力量，优化您的S&OP流程，以驾驭不断变化的业务环境。

Harnessing the Power of “What If” in Sales and Operations Planning Process 
在销售和运营规划流程中利用“假设”的力量

In the modern business landscape, digital solutions are revolutionizing the S&OP process. These solutions offer capabilities beyond traditional systems, enabling businesses to perform in-depth “what if” scenario planning quickly and effectively to ensure their business planning efforts are successful. 
在现代商业环境中，数字解决方案正在彻底改变S&OP流程。这些解决方案提供了超越传统系统的功能，使企业能够快速有效地执行深入的“假设”场景规划，以确保其业务规划工作取得成功。

Solutions like Logility, with robust capabilities for scenario planning, enable businesses to make the most of “what if” scenario analysis and ensure a smooth decision-making process that inspires cross-functional collaboration across all involved departments. 
像 Logility 这样的解决方案具有强大的场景规划功能，使企业能够充分利用“假设”场景分析，并确保决策过程顺利进行，从而激发所有相关部门之间的跨职能协作。

Digital solutions utilize real-time data integration to deliver a unified, accurate, and up-to-date view of your business. This means you can generate and analyze scenarios based on the very latest data, enhancing the reliability of your predictions. 
数字解决方案利用实时数据集成来提供统一、准确和最新的业务视图。这意味着您可以根据最新数据生成和分析场景，从而提高预测的可靠性。

When it comes to scenario simulations, advanced software can process complex calculations in a fraction of the time required by manual methods or basic tools. This ability to swiftly simulate and compare multiple scenarios allows decision-makers to respond proactively to changing market conditions. 
在场景模拟方面，高级软件可以在手动方法或基本工具所需时间的一小部分内处理复杂的计算。这种快速模拟和比较多个场景的能力使决策者能够主动响应不断变化的市场条件。

Outcome visualization is another critical feature that helps businesses interpret and understand the results of various scenarios. These solutions simplify decision-making and ensure all stakeholders are on the same page by presenting data in an easily digestible format. 
结果可视化是另一个关键功能，可帮助企业解释和理解各种场景的结果。这些解决方案通过以易于理解的格式呈现数据来简化决策，并确保所有利益相关者都在同一页面上。

With these capabilities, businesses can focus on critical metrics and KPIs like demand forecast accuracy, inventory turnover, on-time delivery, order accuracy, total sales, gross margins, and working capital projections. Digital solutions like Logility can monitor these metrics in real time, facilitating a more proactive and responsive sales and operations process. 
借助这些功能，企业可以专注于关键指标和 KPI，例如需求预测准确性、库存周转率、准时交货、订单准确性、总销售额、毛利率和营运资本预测。像Logility这样的数字解决方案可以实时监控这些指标，促进更主动和响应更快的销售和运营流程。

Beyond these immediate benefits, digital solutions are crucial in building sustainable and resilient supply chains. They empower businesses to anticipate disruptions, devise contingency plans, and adapt their strategies on the fly — all key to maintaining supply chain resilience and antifragile in the face of uncertainty. 
除了这些直接的好处之外，数字解决方案对于建立可持续和有弹性的供应链至关重要。它们使企业能够预测中断，制定应急计划，并即时调整其战略——这些都是在面对不确定性时保持供应链弹性和抗脆弱性的关键。

For example, Logility can support the development of sustainable and resilient supply chains by enabling businesses to simulate and understand the impacts of different environmental, social, and economic scenarios to help synchronize efforts throughout the entire planning cycle. By gaining a clearer what-if picture, previous silos across the business can take more proactive and cohesive initiatives for more integrated business planning.  
例如，Logility 可以通过使企业模拟和了解不同环境、社会和经济场景的影响来帮助在整个规划周期中同步工作，从而支持可持续和有弹性的供应链的发展。通过获得更清晰的假设情况，整个企业以前的孤岛可以采取更主动和有凝聚力的举措，以实现更集成的业务规划。

The ability to integrate real-time data, simulate diverse scenarios, and visualize outcomes are all critical to maximizing the value of scenario planning. As a result, these tools not only enhance Sales and operations planning but contribute significantly to building a more resilient and sustainable supply chain. 
集成实时数据、模拟各种场景和可视化结果的能力对于最大化场景规划的价值至关重要。因此，这些工具不仅增强了销售和运营计划，而且为建立更具弹性和可持续性的供应链做出了重大贡献。

Transforming Uncertainty into a Strategic Advantage 
将不确定性转化为战略优势

Navigating today’s unpredictable business landscape demands a dynamic, forward-thinking approach to sales and operations planning , and harnessing the power of “what if” scenario planning is a cornerstone of that approach. 
驾驭当今不可预测的商业环境需要一种动态的、前瞻性的销售和运营规划方法，而利用“假设”情景规划的力量是该方法的基石。

Through scenario planning, businesses can anticipate a range of possible future situations, improving forecast accuracy, mitigating risks, making strategic decisions, reducing lead times, and ultimately, enhancing profitability and inventory management. However, executing “what if” scenario planning effectively necessitates using effective planning software. 
通过情景规划，企业可以预测一系列可能的未来情况，提高预测准确性，降低风险，做出战略决策，缩短交货时间，并最终提高盈利能力和库存管理。然而，有效地执行“假设”情景规划需要使用有效的规划软件。

S&OP software provides real-time data integration and efficient scenario simulations and offers intuitive outcome visualizations. These capabilities empower businesses to focus on key metrics and to develop more resilient and sustainable supply chains, transforming uncertainties into strategic advantages. 
S&OP软件提供实时数据集成和高效的情景模拟，并提供直观的结果可视化。这些能力使企业能够专注于关键指标，并开发更具弹性和可持续性的供应链，将不确定性转化为战略优势。

Logility provides comprehensive capabilities designed to elevate your Sales and operations planning process to new levels of efficiency and effectiveness. 
Logility提供全面的功能，旨在将您的销售和运营计划流程提升到新的效率和有效性水平。

Explore how Logility can help you harness the power of “what if” to transform your S&OP process, drive business alignment, and thrive amidst uncertainty. 
探索 Logility 如何帮助您利用“假设”的力量来转变您的 S&OP 流程、推动业务一致性并在不确定性中蓬勃发展。